Into the roaring 20s

And so another decade ends. First of all, the euro made it through and ‘old media’ continued to decline (two things that concerned me back in the days). Big tech has had a great run since then and is now dominating the media and entertainment space. Smartphones raised personal productivity and brought us ridesharing as well as mobile banking. Social networks have in general facilitated global communication and news flow, but Facebook and Co. were also being instrumentalised by rogue states and populists attacking our democratic system and personal freedom, enabling Trump and Brexit. Also, the ‘millennial lifestyle’ has become ubiquitous. Co-working spaces popped up across cities where people are consuming protein bowls, smoothies (not me, I still prefer espressos) and tons of avocados.

Predicting the future is foolish. But awareness of trends can help to stay ahead of the curve. A few things I’ll be looking at...

Financial Markets and Central Banks

Overall it has been a pleasant decade in the markets, one just had to put the money into standard ETFs and sit out the trend. Coming out of the great financial crisis of 2008 (which is still haunting many folks), prudence has been front and centre for investors, companies, bankers and governments. It feels like those in charge are doing everything to let us not even come close to another downturn. The economic cycle appears orchestrated and engineered, interest rates artificially kept low (so the narrative), markets maintained alive by permanent stimulus and money printing. Other less discussed factors might also keep inflation low, like technological progress. But the blame is generally on the FED and the other global central banks (and their governments behind) who chimed in entering a competitive run to the bottom and below. Are we seeing a ‘new normal’ (unlikely) or will the tide be turning at some point? How will it play out? I’ll have the popcorn ready! 

Bitcoin

Or the digital gold. I never got the goldbugs. Projecting value on shiny stones that you dig out of the ground and then hide in your bedroom. They say it’s scarce (cannot be inflated), has proven to be a store of value over centuries (other than paper money) and can be anonymous, protecting one’s privacy. Attributes that are also claimed by Bitcoin advocates. Well, the protocol only exists for ten years so far, but it worked without major hiccups. Bitcoin is a predictable piece of software that guarantees a fixed, decreasing supply (as an answer to the inflating government money) and the privacy of its users is warranted. Bitcoiners also highlight its ‘unconfiscability’. They tell the story of the Cyprus banking crisis of 2013 when the country’s largest bank was forced to close under pressure from the European ‘Troika’ and the IMF, seizing part of the account holder’s money to repay its debt. Bitcoin still has some ‘PR issues’ to respond to, the high volatility and assumed use by criminals. Although the latter might still mostly utilize cash given that Bitcoin transactions are recorded on the blockchain and can theoretically be traced back. Time plays in Bitcoin's favour, as younger generations will likely prefer a sound computer programme rather than an old fashioned and greedy banker when depositing their savings or making a money transfer. Central Banks and private companies (Facebook’s Libra) are jumping on the trend and  test their (centralised) versions of digital money, which obviously won’t be anonymous. 

Globalisation - what next?

Is de-globalisation the big deal in the years to come? Nationalism and protectionism are on the rise, trade barriers rising and populists are pushing back globalists. It might just be the final hurrah of the boomer generation. Millennials and Gen Z are already mobilising their peers, protest movements are popping up around the planet to fight global warming, inequality and the erosion of personal freedom. The protests are those of true globalists, people who are used to freedom of movement and the ability to communicate openly, having grown up with the internet. The speedy advance of technology has a lot of momentum and won’t be stopped. But technology also led governments to become more assertive propping up its surveillance apparatus. China has become the poster child leading the world in the facial recognition space and monitoring of money flow through their tech behemoths, feeding all this data into their social credit system. Privacy is under attack!

The future of news

The disruption of the traditional news industry became a serious thing at the beginning of the last decade. The first response was attack. At Dow Jones, which I left last year, we created several local language editions for the Wall Street Journal, adding blogs and video services. We integrated news and data into a single product to take on Bloomberg. By the end of the decade, the local editions have shut down, and so has the print production of the paper, with exception of the US. Data products continue to serve some niche audiences. Digital subscriptions for the WSJ are thriving, but mostly in the home market. Last fall, the Journal partnered with Facebook to feed some content into their news aggregation product. Other brands are surviving with the help of billionaire investors or after being trimmed by private equity. Thomson Reuters will end up under the roof of the London Stock Exchange which aims to become a data provider. As mentioned initially, the likes of Google and Facebook are wielding significant influence and power, to an extent that they could be broken up. On their platforms, new species like the social media influencer or video channel publisher have sprung into existence. A new wave of (to say it with Taleb) ‘artisan’ content producers have become proper businesses, broadcasting directly to millions of followers. They’ll certainly be here for some time, co-existing with the smaller established media brands. Interesting times ahead!

The power behind the news

A new beauty contest in today's Wall Street Journal Asia - the list of the most powerful CEO's in India, as measured by appearance in the news. We collect this data for the New Delhi bureau who comments on the top events involving the executives. The interactive online graphic can be found here. There is also a Japanese and Chinese version of the Power List which are already live for some time.

Media sentiment predicts eurozone collapse

Some recent findings regarding media sentiment. As I already pointed out earlier in our Dow Jones PR blog, there are astonishing parallels between the media talking about a possible eurozone break-up and the Spanish yield curves.
We searched for the terms euro/eurozone break-up/collapse and related words. The result was a peak in early December 2011, prior to a critical EU summit in Brussels. The outcome of the meeting (and the ECB) were calming the markets in the following weeks, but now it appears that the fear about the euro is back.
It's visible on today's spike in the Spanish bond yields - most-watched as the battle for Spain likely decides the fate of the single currency.
Mentions of "Euro Break-up" were already raising to a new year high in the last week. 683 documents referred to it, according to data collected from Factiva. And it seems to be just the beginning.

Data rules the world

Blogging is cool again. Hundreds of new mainstream blogs are mushrooming in the big newsrooms, the FT, WSJ or the NYT reporters being very prolific. The world is longing for more analysis and commentary! Real-time blogging and live desks are the newest trend. The FT was setting up one and so did the Journal. Our life as a stream - we pick our influencers and they feed us the information we need. Instantly. At any time.


Since the beginning of the year we provide some media data to the new Wall Street Journal Deutschland in Frankfurt. They created this fantastic graphic here. It shows the DAX CEOs that are most appearing in newspapers, magazines and trade press. Volkswagen chief Martin Winterkorn is currently number 1, ousting Deutsche Bank’s Joseph Ackermann who was on the top during the entire last year. More to come...

China will win

Hong Kong rocks. Walk in between the countless towers and feel the throbbing and buzzing. Honkers describe Singapore as dull. My first impression of Hong Kong was “messy”. Chaotic. But now I believe that it’s cool. Hong Kongers are cool and über-trendy, Japanese-style. You don’t find that in Singapore.

The economy is strong and businessmen powerful. Just last week the Wall Street Journal launched a city edition, featuring the most influential CEOs. The Hong Kong Power list has been prepared by my team of fine Media Analysts. Fancy that. These are things we are doing. Even Bloomberg was mentioning it.

The main motive for the trip was a workshop with PR people. We talked about digital media, measurement and reputation. How do Chinese companies curate their brands? It’s very simple. They are hiring armies of internauts to spread positive comments on Twitter, Facebook or whatever. The government does it. Even a simple golf club is doing it. In China there is a perception that the web can be controlled and so they act accordingly. Sometimes even by hacking sites of western companies. But for that you better ask Julian.

It’s time for the social media rock stars

Here we are. Finally there seems to be a real demand for Social Media strategists as more and more companies figure out that it makes sense to have dedicated staff who understand Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn and the alike. Some companies pay even US$ 120k and more at director level according to this interesting background story published by Businessweek.

It sounds so like a new “New Economy”:

“A swarm of self-proclaimed social media rainmakers has appeared at job interviews, aiming to parlay a high number of Facebook friends or Twitter followers into salaried positions with benefits—all of which is vaguely reminiscent of the frenzied hiring during the first Internet boom in the late 1990s.”

Most likely companies won’t be fooled again this time as there are now clear expectations linked to these jobs:

- Reputation Management and Metrics: A broad range of tools allows tracking of Social Media mentions and puts it in relation to the industry peers. But even more important: Companies want to know how their brands are being treated. How to respond in the case they have been damaged?

- Social Media Marketing: The company is reaching out to the influencers and makes them brand advocates. How to engage and maintain this relationship?

Felix Salmon looks at how the age of Twitter is changing corporate communications: Good for PR, bad for journalists.

“What’s more, Twitter gives companies the ability to speak directly to the public without going via journalists (or even mere bloggers); and it also allows them to keep tab on what the public thinks without using journalists and media commentators as an imperfect proxy. Public relations is, after all, the art of relating with the public: journalists are just a means to an end. And the public has never been as easy to relate with as it is now, in the age of Twitter.”

It will be crucial if the company is able to maintain this constant dialogue with the public and to have an adequate infrastructure in place. Salmon is optimistic as he believes that executives like Twitter, and they want to keep the company’s presence high profile because other executives are looking at it as well - in a similar way they are looking at the Wall Street Journal. Looks like there is a bright future for qualified Social Media experts.

The era of the cloud 2

I'm still typing this blog comment on my laptop, but both blogs as well as laptops are "old school" again. Just read a remarkable article from Salesforce.com founder Marc Benioff. According to him we are just transitioning to the "Cloud 2" and the iPad, on sale this weekend, is the most obvious manifestation.
From Pull to Push: "Pulling" information from databases and newspapers is declining, our friends and trusted sources push the news to us instead. Information appears in streams and feeds. The prevailing tools are Twitter, Facebook and Youtube.

I'm currently receiving three different information feeds, a "paywall" feed, that I'm getting via Factiva, a blog/web feed on Google Reader and a Twitter feed, where I directly follow thought leaders of the areas I'm interested in. With this I feel prepared for the era of the Cloud 2. Just need to upgrade my hardware...

Update: In the same context, Jeff Jarvis is commenting on one of Benioff's postulates, the move from creation to consumption. It is nothing else than a strategy of the media companies to regain control about the democratised social media space. The iPad "does not include a simple (fucking) USB port, which means that I can’t bring in and take out content easily."

From this angle, apps are also appearing in a negative light:

"This shift to apps is a move in precisely the opposite direction. Apps are more closed, contained, controlling. That, again, is why media companies like them. But they don’t interoperate — they don’t play well — with other apps and with the web itself; they are hostile to links and search."

The iPad is the Trojan Horse that lures us into the paywall castle, with the gates firmly shut down.