Into the roaring 20s

And so another decade ends. First of all, the euro made it through and ‘old media’ continued to decline (two things that concerned me back in the days). Big tech has had a great run since then and is now dominating the media and entertainment space. Smartphones raised personal productivity and brought us ridesharing as well as mobile banking. Social networks have in general facilitated global communication and news flow, but Facebook and Co. were also being instrumentalised by rogue states and populists attacking our democratic system and personal freedom, enabling Trump and Brexit. Also, the ‘millennial lifestyle’ has become ubiquitous. Co-working spaces popped up across cities where people are consuming protein bowls, smoothies (not me, I still prefer espressos) and tons of avocados.

Predicting the future is foolish. But awareness of trends can help to stay ahead of the curve. A few things I’ll be looking at...

Financial Markets and Central Banks

Overall it has been a pleasant decade in the markets, one just had to put the money into standard ETFs and sit out the trend. Coming out of the great financial crisis of 2008 (which is still haunting many folks), prudence has been front and centre for investors, companies, bankers and governments. It feels like those in charge are doing everything to let us not even come close to another downturn. The economic cycle appears orchestrated and engineered, interest rates artificially kept low (so the narrative), markets maintained alive by permanent stimulus and money printing. Other less discussed factors might also keep inflation low, like technological progress. But the blame is generally on the FED and the other global central banks (and their governments behind) who chimed in entering a competitive run to the bottom and below. Are we seeing a ‘new normal’ (unlikely) or will the tide be turning at some point? How will it play out? I’ll have the popcorn ready! 

Bitcoin

Or the digital gold. I never got the goldbugs. Projecting value on shiny stones that you dig out of the ground and then hide in your bedroom. They say it’s scarce (cannot be inflated), has proven to be a store of value over centuries (other than paper money) and can be anonymous, protecting one’s privacy. Attributes that are also claimed by Bitcoin advocates. Well, the protocol only exists for ten years so far, but it worked without major hiccups. Bitcoin is a predictable piece of software that guarantees a fixed, decreasing supply (as an answer to the inflating government money) and the privacy of its users is warranted. Bitcoiners also highlight its ‘unconfiscability’. They tell the story of the Cyprus banking crisis of 2013 when the country’s largest bank was forced to close under pressure from the European ‘Troika’ and the IMF, seizing part of the account holder’s money to repay its debt. Bitcoin still has some ‘PR issues’ to respond to, the high volatility and assumed use by criminals. Although the latter might still mostly utilize cash given that Bitcoin transactions are recorded on the blockchain and can theoretically be traced back. Time plays in Bitcoin's favour, as younger generations will likely prefer a sound computer programme rather than an old fashioned and greedy banker when depositing their savings or making a money transfer. Central Banks and private companies (Facebook’s Libra) are jumping on the trend and  test their (centralised) versions of digital money, which obviously won’t be anonymous. 

Globalisation - what next?

Is de-globalisation the big deal in the years to come? Nationalism and protectionism are on the rise, trade barriers rising and populists are pushing back globalists. It might just be the final hurrah of the boomer generation. Millennials and Gen Z are already mobilising their peers, protest movements are popping up around the planet to fight global warming, inequality and the erosion of personal freedom. The protests are those of true globalists, people who are used to freedom of movement and the ability to communicate openly, having grown up with the internet. The speedy advance of technology has a lot of momentum and won’t be stopped. But technology also led governments to become more assertive propping up its surveillance apparatus. China has become the poster child leading the world in the facial recognition space and monitoring of money flow through their tech behemoths, feeding all this data into their social credit system. Privacy is under attack!

The future of news

The disruption of the traditional news industry became a serious thing at the beginning of the last decade. The first response was attack. At Dow Jones, which I left last year, we created several local language editions for the Wall Street Journal, adding blogs and video services. We integrated news and data into a single product to take on Bloomberg. By the end of the decade, the local editions have shut down, and so has the print production of the paper, with exception of the US. Data products continue to serve some niche audiences. Digital subscriptions for the WSJ are thriving, but mostly in the home market. Last fall, the Journal partnered with Facebook to feed some content into their news aggregation product. Other brands are surviving with the help of billionaire investors or after being trimmed by private equity. Thomson Reuters will end up under the roof of the London Stock Exchange which aims to become a data provider. As mentioned initially, the likes of Google and Facebook are wielding significant influence and power, to an extent that they could be broken up. On their platforms, new species like the social media influencer or video channel publisher have sprung into existence. A new wave of (to say it with Taleb) ‘artisan’ content producers have become proper businesses, broadcasting directly to millions of followers. They’ll certainly be here for some time, co-existing with the smaller established media brands. Interesting times ahead!

China will win

Hong Kong rocks. Walk in between the countless towers and feel the throbbing and buzzing. Honkers describe Singapore as dull. My first impression of Hong Kong was “messy”. Chaotic. But now I believe that it’s cool. Hong Kongers are cool and über-trendy, Japanese-style. You don’t find that in Singapore.

The economy is strong and businessmen powerful. Just last week the Wall Street Journal launched a city edition, featuring the most influential CEOs. The Hong Kong Power list has been prepared by my team of fine Media Analysts. Fancy that. These are things we are doing. Even Bloomberg was mentioning it.

The main motive for the trip was a workshop with PR people. We talked about digital media, measurement and reputation. How do Chinese companies curate their brands? It’s very simple. They are hiring armies of internauts to spread positive comments on Twitter, Facebook or whatever. The government does it. Even a simple golf club is doing it. In China there is a perception that the web can be controlled and so they act accordingly. Sometimes even by hacking sites of western companies. But for that you better ask Julian.

It’s time for the social media rock stars

Here we are. Finally there seems to be a real demand for Social Media strategists as more and more companies figure out that it makes sense to have dedicated staff who understand Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn and the alike. Some companies pay even US$ 120k and more at director level according to this interesting background story published by Businessweek.

It sounds so like a new “New Economy”:

“A swarm of self-proclaimed social media rainmakers has appeared at job interviews, aiming to parlay a high number of Facebook friends or Twitter followers into salaried positions with benefits—all of which is vaguely reminiscent of the frenzied hiring during the first Internet boom in the late 1990s.”

Most likely companies won’t be fooled again this time as there are now clear expectations linked to these jobs:

- Reputation Management and Metrics: A broad range of tools allows tracking of Social Media mentions and puts it in relation to the industry peers. But even more important: Companies want to know how their brands are being treated. How to respond in the case they have been damaged?

- Social Media Marketing: The company is reaching out to the influencers and makes them brand advocates. How to engage and maintain this relationship?

Felix Salmon looks at how the age of Twitter is changing corporate communications: Good for PR, bad for journalists.

“What’s more, Twitter gives companies the ability to speak directly to the public without going via journalists (or even mere bloggers); and it also allows them to keep tab on what the public thinks without using journalists and media commentators as an imperfect proxy. Public relations is, after all, the art of relating with the public: journalists are just a means to an end. And the public has never been as easy to relate with as it is now, in the age of Twitter.”

It will be crucial if the company is able to maintain this constant dialogue with the public and to have an adequate infrastructure in place. Salmon is optimistic as he believes that executives like Twitter, and they want to keep the company’s presence high profile because other executives are looking at it as well - in a similar way they are looking at the Wall Street Journal. Looks like there is a bright future for qualified Social Media experts.

Twitter's intrusion into the newswire business

Is Twitter turning into a powerful newsfeed, instead of just being a “social network”? Reuters contributor and blogger luminary Felix Salmon makes an interesting point. Celebrities, thought leaders and experts in no matter what bear the brunt of the Twitter action. Average Joe and Jane limit themselves to following passively in lieu of acting and growing their network.

Professionals, like journalists and analysts are also increasingly making use of the social feed that offers a direct line to the sources.

How does that affect the traditional newswire business? It will be struggling, as intermediaries are apparently no longer needed. I saw that Reuters, one of the endangered species, just released new social media guidelines. Some highlights of what could be a role model for the industry:

- Journalists should not forget to break the news always first on the wire, and not on Twitter.

- Always be aware of the possible reputational risks. As the journalist is employed by Reuters, unfortunate posts can backfire on the brand. Line manager approval is therefore required.

- There is a risk that personal data could be exposed. Sources could be revealed to competitors if they are followed or friended on Facebook.

Reuters also explicitly encourages its journalists to use social media and to capitalise on the advantages. Because at the end it will allow the promotion of own work and it helps shaping the image of a trusted and competent news brand. And that’s what is selling.

China and the future of media

I'm back from an incredible trip to Beijing. This city is simply huge and extraordinarily fast-moving. Some surprising aspects for a first-time visitor:
- Primarily you see the middle class - even if there are also many rich and many poor people. But I had the impression that most of the Beijing denizens are driving middle class cars and go shopping to H&M and Nike (or Li Ning, the local version).
- China isn't at all appearing as the authoritarian state one might expect. It's the complete opposite to Singapore. Beijing is just chaos. Everything seems to be allowed here. However, the society is prospering and currently doing significantly better than other countries. What's the secret of success? The confucian value system?

At the Foreign Correspondents Club of China I met some people from the regional Media space. The event was supposed to offer career transition ideas for journalists. Ironically, most of the attendees were quite happy with their current job, even if a very pessimistic view prevailed. Insecurity and a lack of ideas on how to respond to the structural changes in the Media were widely dominating. The PR industry was named as a possible exit for journalists who still prefer to get paid for their writing.
Fortunately, a New Media expert was also attending and lightening up the scene with his fresh ideas. I talked with Benjamin Joffe, a strategy consultant who counts among his clients Microsoft, Orange and China Mobile. Benjamin told me that the Media companies in the US and Europe are still not fully aware about the potential of the Asian markets. When he visited Facebook in Silicon Valley, they didn't know that the Chinese online community Tencent QQ quadrupels the number of registrated Facebook users. Revenue margins of these platforms are impressive too. The data of Benjamin's company +8* reveals China as the number one market for internet and mobile usage, with a still very low penetration rate.
On the other side, John Bishop works as a rather traditional reporter for the China Economic Review. This is a monthly magazine, published in Hong Kong and covering Business, Finance and Economics issues in China. I don't have any data on this but my gut instinct is telling me that demand for good-written stories on China will keep rising and that there will be a market for this type of information. And it will also provide income to journalists and other Media professionals.

Photo: CCTV building in Beijing, middle class cars

Is Twitter killing blogs?

Venture capitalist Howard Lindzon was voicing the provocative thesis this week. The convenience of the 140-character microblogging service will result in the demise of “personal diaries” or will at least leave many posts unwritten.
There is a clear tendency to a more concise way to broadcast information, not only in the personal space. Newspaper editors are slashing the length of their articles, for example. Personally, I would rather use the Facebook news feed in order to ping my friends (or followers, if you prefer)… also because most of them are probably not aware of this blog and would never find it.
Twitter is gaining traction, not only in the US. The website received in February 9.8 million unique visitors, up from 6.1 million in January, according to comscore.
Twitter is allegedly now the third most popular Social Media service after Facebook and MySpace, and catching up rapidly.
It is developing an incredible commercial value. Rumours appeared on Friday that Google is pondering an offer, significantly higher than the $255 million price tag that has recently been attributed to the service.
Twitter is talk. If you follow the discussions on Twitter, you know what millions of people are saying. That’s something companies or publicly exposed persons are caring a lot about. If not, they should do it, in order to be able to preserve their brands. Little tools, like Tweeting Trends, Hashtags or Monitter are able to analyse and measure the “talk” and figure out trends. Twitter itself was recently incoporating a search function that makes it easy to monitor specific issues or names.
Its value is probably that Twitter “owns” all this chatter. At present, there is no competitor in sight. After the recent relaunch, Facebook is aspiring a share of the short message revolution and wants to be a tad like Twitter.
I just read by the way that “nanoblogging” is already around the corner…